Three Strategic Options
Payback: 1.0 yr (base) · Capex: $3.0–$5.2M
40–60
field days needed
to feed 1 BET
900
acres thinned/yr
(vs 5,175 modeled)
✅ Minimum diesel, labor, equipment
✅ Lowest capex and operating risk
✅ Same plant-side EBITDA as current
❌ Only 900 acres thinned/yr — limited ecological impact
❌ No platform for growth or 2nd unit
❌ Strands harvest equipment capacity
Payback: 1.0 yr (base) · Capex: $3.0–$5.2M
5,175
acres thinned/yr
ecological benefit
85,500
surplus green tons/yr
with nowhere to go
✅ Maximum ecological / thinning benefit
✅ Same EBITDA as Option A
✅ Positioned to add 2nd BET with no harvest changes
❌ Harvest is 5.8× oversized for 1 BET
❌ $483K/yr in field costs producing surplus chips
❌ Surplus biomass is stranded cost without 2nd BET
⭐
Total capex: $4.5M–$7.5M · 2nd unit payback: ~0.4 yrs
21,600
tons biochar/yr
(2× output)
43,200
carbon credits/yr
tCO2e (2× credits)
✅ Doubles revenue — $11.95M/yr at base prices
✅ 2nd BET pays back in ~0.4 years on $1.95M extra capex
✅ Justifies the full 230-day harvest schedule
✅ Shared ORC, stockpile, site — low incremental overhead
✅ Harvest still 2.9× oversupplied — no field changes needed
⚠️ Biochar market absorption at 21,600 t/yr needs planning
⚠️ Air quality permit may require review at 2× throughput
Harvest Scale vs. BET Demand — What Does Each Field Schedule Actually Feed?
Chipper at 45 green t/hr · 10 hrs/day · BET 3000 demand = 18,000 green t/yr per unit
40 days
= 1.0× 1-BET (exact minimum)
60 days
= 1.5× 1-BET safety margin
80 days
= exact minimum for 2 BETs
120 days
= 1.5× 2-BET safety margin
230 days ★
103,500 t — Current model · 5.8× 1-BET demand · 2.9× 2-BET demand
2.9× 2-BET demand
Key insight: Two BET 3000 units only need 80 field days of chipping to meet their annual demand. The 230-day harvest schedule produces 2.9× more than two BETs need. This means the harvest is extremely robust against downtime, weather, and equipment failures even at full dual-unit capacity — and still leaves headroom for biomass sales or a future third unit.
Dual BET 3000 — Financial Deep Dive
Revenue & EBITDA: 1 BET vs 2 BETs
Base case — CC $150/tCO2e · Biochar $250/ton · Wood ~$12/ton avg
| Line Item | 1 BET | 2 BETs | Δ |
|---|
| Biochar output | 10,800 t/yr | 21,600 t/yr | +10,800 t |
| Carbon credits | 21,600 tCO2e | 43,200 tCO2e | +21,600 t |
| Biochar revenue | $2.70M | $5.40M | +$2.70M |
| Carbon credit revenue | $3.24M | $6.48M | +$3.24M |
| ORC electricity value | $68K | $140K | +$72K |
| Total Revenue | $6.01M | $11.95M | +$5.94M |
| Labor (plant, incremental) | $813K | $1.09M | +$280K |
| Field costs (unchanged) | $585K | $585K | — |
| Packaging + transport | $324K | $648K | +$324K |
| Maintenance (2× BET) | $139K | $229K | +$90K |
| All other opex (shared) | $39K | $89K | +$50K |
| Total OPEX | $1.90M | $2.64M | +$740K |
| EBITDA | $4.11M | $9.30M | +$5.20M |
Incremental Capex — 2nd BET Unit
Shared infrastructure dramatically lowers the cost of the 2nd unit
2nd BET 3000 pyrolysis unit
$1.2M – $2.0M
Larger / 2nd ORC unit (shared heat)
$200K – $400K
Electrical, piping, install
$100K – $200K
No new harvest equipment needed ✅
$0
No new stockpile / site work needed ✅
$0
Total incremental capex (2nd BET)
$1.5M – $2.6M
2nd Unit Payback
~0.4 yrs
$1.95M avg capex ÷ $5.20M incremental EBITDA
The second BET is the most profitable capital deployment in the entire project
Why is the 2nd unit so cheap? Every expensive shared asset — harvest equipment, chip pad, site infrastructure, admin, MRV certification, access roads, grid connection — is already paid for by the first unit. The 2nd BET is essentially just the reactor + ORC piping on an already-prepared site.
Dual-BET Constraint Check — What Could Block It?
✅
Feedstock supply230-day harvest delivers 103,500 green t/yr — 2.9× what 2 BETs need (36,000 t). No harvest changes required.
✅
Land base100K–150K harvestable acres within 10 miles. Even at 2× BET you're using ~12% of sustainable yield. No constraint.
✅
Carbon credit market43,200 tCO2e/yr is tiny relative to 3M+ tonnes contracted annually. Microsoft alone buys 1.24M tonnes. No absorption risk.
✅
Capital requirement$4.5M–$7.5M total for 2-BET buildout. With $9.3M/yr EBITDA at base case, debt financing is straightforward.
✅
Labor17 FTE total (13 + 4 incremental plant staff for 2nd unit shifts). Manageable, well-defined team structure.
✅
Site footprint~2 acres processing + 1.5 acres chip pad = 3.5 acres total. Standard industrial site easily accommodates both units.
⚠️
Biochar market absorption21,600 tons/yr is a meaningful volume for regional ag markets (<100 mi). Requires proactive offtake agreements, multiple buyers, or bulk export channel before committing to 2nd unit.
⚠️
Air quality permittingDoubling pyrolysis throughput likely triggers a Class II air permit review in most western states. Timeline: 6–18 months. Plan for this in project sequencing — permit both units upfront if possible.
⭐ Strategic Recommendation
On Harvest Scale
The 230-day harvest is genuinely oversized for a single BET — it produces 5.8× what the plant needs, with $483K/yr in field costs generating surplus chips that go nowhere. Running 230 days only makes sense if you commit to two BET units. If staying with one BET, cut the field season to 60–80 days, save ~$350K/yr in field costs, and thin ~1,200–1,500 acres/yr instead of 5,175. Modest ecological benefit, but financially honest.
On Dual BET Units
The financial case for the 2nd BET is extremely strong. At ~$1.95M incremental capex for +$5.2M/yr EBITDA, the payback is ~0.4 years — faster than any other capital deployment in the project. The harvest infrastructure, site, stockpile, ORC, and overhead are all already paid for. The 2nd BET is essentially free money once the first unit is running. The two real constraints to resolve first are biochar market offtake agreements and the air quality permit.
Recommended Sequence
- Permit both BET units upfront — avoid re-permitting delay
- Start with 1 BET + 60-day harvest season in Year 1
- Use Year 1 revenue and carbon credits to finance 2nd BET
- Secure biochar offtake agreements before Year 2 buildout
- Expand harvest to 230 days when 2nd BET comes online
- Upgrade to single larger ORC serving both units at Year 2
- 10-year cumulative net (2-BET base): ~$80M+